America’s food supply chain is flashing another warning sign.
A new nationwide survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 70% of U.S. farmers say they cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this year, raising fears of lower crop yields, tighter food supplies, and even higher grocery prices ahead.
More than 5,700 farmers from all 50 states and Puerto Rico responded to the survey, painting a grim picture of rising costs, shrinking margins, and growing uncertainty across the farm economy.
If farmers cannot afford the nutrients needed to grow crops, consumers may soon feel the impact at the checkout counter.
70% of Farmers Say They Can’t Buy What They Need
The survey found fertilizer affordability has become a national crisis.
Regional breakdowns were especially alarming:
- South: 78% cannot afford needed fertilizer
- Northeast: 69%
- West: 66%
- Midwest: 48%
Some commodity growers were hit even harder, with more than 80% of rice, cotton, and peanut farmers reporting they cannot afford all required fertilizer this season.
That means many growers may cut applications, reduce planted acreage, or accept lower yields.
Why Fertilizer Prices Are Exploding
Farm groups point to a combination of global disruptions and domestic pressures:
- Middle East conflict affecting energy markets
- Strait of Hormuz shipping instability
- Higher diesel fuel costs
- Natural gas spikes used in nitrogen fertilizer production
- Port surcharges and transport costs
- Years of already thin farm profit margins
Since late February, urea prices reportedly surged 47%, while nitrogen fertilizer rose more than 30%.
Farm diesel prices also jumped sharply, creating a double blow for producers.
Why This Matters to Every American
Fertilizer is not optional for modern agriculture.
When farmers use less fertilizer:
- Crop yields often fall
- Feed supplies tighten
- Food inflation rises
- Livestock costs increase
- Imports may become more necessary
In short: if farmers grow less, families pay more.
Related Reading: News Watchmen previously reported on shipping tensions and Middle East choke points threatening global trade flows.
Farmers Already in Crisis
Many producers were already struggling before this year’s fertilizer spike.
Across rural America, farmers have faced:
- Rising debt loads
- Bankruptcies
- Equipment costs
- Labor shortages
- Weather volatility
- Tariff uncertainty
Now input costs may be the breaking point.
One farm leader warned that farmers remain “at the bottom of the food chain” when it comes to profitability.
Long-Term Warning Through 2028?
Some analysts now believe fertilizer markets may stay elevated well beyond this season.
Damage to regional production hubs, shipping disruptions, and unstable global energy markets could keep prices high into 2027 or 2028 depending on geopolitical developments.
That means this may not be a short-term squeeze—it could be the start of a prolonged agricultural shock.
Related Reading: News Watchmen also covered growing concerns over food security, inflation, and supply chain vulnerability in America.
Prophetic Watch
Scripture warns that in troubled times, scarcity and economic strain can spread quickly.
“A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius…” — Revelation 6:6 (NASB 1995)
Food systems are more fragile than many realize. When war, trade disruption, and rising costs converge, everyday necessities can become burdensome.
Final Thoughts
The message from America’s farmers is clear: fertilizer costs are becoming unsustainable.
If 70% of growers cannot afford what they need, this issue will not stay on the farm. It will move to grocery stores, family budgets, and national food security.
When those who feed the nation are squeezed, everyone eventually feels it.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What did the survey find?
Seventy percent of farmers said they cannot afford all needed fertilizer this year.
2. Why is fertilizer so expensive?
Energy costs, shipping disruptions, global conflict, and supply shortages are driving prices higher.
3. Which regions are hardest hit?
The South reported the highest stress, followed by the Northeast and West.
4. How does this affect consumers?
Lower farm production can lead to higher food prices and tighter supplies.
5. Could prices stay high for years?
Some analysts believe fertilizer costs may remain elevated into 2027 or 2028.
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