News Watchmen

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is urging Canada to consider using energy exports as a weapon in the escalating trade war with President Donald Trump.

But there is a major problem with that strategy:

Ford is asking Alberta to risk its biggest export market while Ontario itself remains heavily dependent on American energy.

And the numbers make the contradiction difficult to ignore.

ALBERTA SENDS THE OIL — ONTARIO NEEDS IT

Ford has repeatedly argued that Canada should put energy exports on the table as leverage against Washington. Recent reporting says he has encouraged restrictions on Alberta oil exports to the United States as part of Canada’s response to the latest tariff escalation.

Alberta, however, is overwhelmingly dependent on the U.S. market.

The Canada Energy Regulator says that in 2025, the United States received the vast majority of Canada’s crude oil exports, while Alberta remains the country’s dominant source of those exports.

So when politicians in Ontario talk about cutting Alberta’s energy exports, they aren’t talking about a minor commodity.

They are talking about one of Alberta’s economic lifelines.

But here’s where the situation gets particularly awkward for Ontario.

Ontario’s own government says approximately 86 percent of the crude oil processed by Ontario refineries comes from Western Canada, with the remaining 14 percent coming from the United States.

In other words, Ontario needs Western Canadian oil.

AND MUCH OF THAT SUPPLY TRAVELS THROUGH AMERICA

There is an even bigger complication.

Canada’s Energy Regulator says Ontario and Quebec receive western Canadian crude through pipeline systems in which some segments travel through the United States before returning to Canada. The regulator specifically warns that this creates potential exposure to U.S. trade action.

The infrastructure is not simply a Canadian pipeline running uninterrupted from Alberta to Ontario.

The North American energy system developed as an interconnected network.

That means Alberta oil can leave Western Canada, travel through American territory and infrastructure, and eventually make its way back into Canada.

So the question for Ford becomes unavoidable:

How exactly does Ontario benefit from Alberta cutting off the American market while Ontario remains dependent on American energy infrastructure and supplies?

THEN THERE’S NATURAL GAS

The contradiction becomes even more obvious when natural gas enters the picture.

Ontario produces very little natural gas and must source it from outside the province. The Canada Energy Regulator says Ontario has been a net importer of U.S. natural gas since 2009.

Ontario’s own energy plan says that in recent years approximately two-thirds of the province’s natural-gas supply has been imported from the United States, with the remaining third coming from Western Canada.

Think about that.

Ontario wants Alberta to consider restricting oil exports to America.

At the same time, Ontario’s economy is receiving substantial quantities of American natural gas.

That is not exactly energy independence.

CANADA BUILT AN ENERGY SYSTEM THAT RUNS THROUGH THE U.S.

This is the larger problem.

Canada has enormous energy resources, but the country never built enough infrastructure to ensure that Western Canadian energy could reach every Canadian market without passing through the United States.

The CER now openly acknowledges the vulnerability.

Its 2026 energy outlook says central Canada depends on crude oil and natural gas from outside the region, and that some western Canadian supplies reach the region through pipelines that transit the United States.

That is an infrastructure failure—not an Alberta failure.

And ironically, Ontario and Alberta have already recognized the problem.

In 2025, Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith signed agreements supporting new infrastructure designed to move Western Canadian oil and gas directly toward southern Ontario and other markets.

In July 2026, Ontario unveiled a proposed Northern Shield Energy Corridor, a roughly 3,300-kilometre Canadian route intended to connect Alberta production with southern Ontario and reduce reliance on U.S. infrastructure.

That is the solution.

Build Canadian infrastructure.

Not punish Alberta for having built an American market.

ALBERTA’S INDEPENDENCE DEBATE

This is precisely why Ford’s proposal is likely to generate resentment in Alberta.

Albertans are being told to sacrifice access to their largest customer in the middle of a trade war while Ontario continues relying heavily on American energy.

That feels less like a national strategy and more like one province being asked to absorb disproportionate economic pain for another province’s political objectives.

And that feeds directly into Alberta’s growing independence debate.

If Ottawa and other provinces want Alberta’s oil to serve Canada, then Canada should build the infrastructure necessary to actually buy Alberta’s oil directly.

If Canada wants energy security, it should not require Western Canadian resources to travel through a foreign country before reaching Canadian consumers.

And if politicians want Alberta to sacrifice its American market, they should be prepared to explain what they are offering Alberta in return.

THE REAL QUESTION

There is nothing wrong with Canada wanting leverage in a trade dispute.

There is also nothing wrong with diversifying energy markets.

In fact, Alberta needs more markets.

But there is a huge difference between diversifying away from dependence on America and simply telling Alberta to stop selling to America before alternative infrastructure and customers exist.

The first is strategic planning.

The second could be economic self-sabotage.

And Ontario’s dependence on American natural gas makes the situation even harder to explain.

If Ford believes cutting energy ties with the United States is the right response to Trump’s tariffs, perhaps Ontario should start by reducing its own dependence on American energy.

Until then, asking Alberta to take the first—and potentially largest—economic hit is going to be a very tough sell.

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RELATED NEWS WATCHMEN COVERAGE

• Trump’s 50% Canada Tariffs Are Now Live — Trade Talks Collapse as Ottawa Vows Dollar-for-Dollar Retaliation — Examines the broader economic confrontation between Washington and Ottawa.
• Alberta Needs a Strong Budget if Independence on Horizon: Kris Sims

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Does Ontario rely on Alberta oil?
Yes. Ontario says approximately 86 percent of the crude processed by its refineries comes from Western Canada.

Does Ontario import American natural gas?
Yes. Ontario’s energy plan says approximately two-thirds of its natural-gas supply has come from the United States in recent years.

Does Western Canadian oil sometimes travel through the United States before reaching Ontario?
Yes. The CER says some western Canadian crude reaching central Canada travels through U.S. pipeline infrastructure.

Why does Alberta sell so much oil to America?
The United States has historically been Canada’s overwhelmingly dominant crude-oil export market, supported by an extensive integrated pipeline network.

Could this increase support for Alberta independence?
It could. Proposals that appear to place disproportionate economic costs on Alberta can intensify existing arguments that the province should have greater control over its energy resources and trade policy.

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