President Donald Trump has just unveiled an extraordinary energy agreement with Venezuela that could fundamentally reshape the North American oil market—and put Canada’s enormous dependence on the American energy market under new pressure.
Trump announced Friday that the United States has secured majority control over more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves through a public-private arrangement.
He called it “THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY.” Reuters and the Associated Press confirmed the announcement, while reporting that many of the agreement’s legal and financial details remain undisclosed.
A Massive New American Oil Position
The agreement reportedly covers 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing roughly 65 billion barrels of proven reserves.
Venezuela says the arrangement could attract more than $100 billion in investment and generate approximately $209 billion in tax revenue for Caracas.
Current reporting indicates the United States would receive approximately 55% of the effective output of the new venture through equity and rights to purchase oil at cost. Other reports describe long-term development rights extending for as much as 100 years.
The important distinction is this:
The United States has not suddenly added 65 billion barrels of immediately producible oil to its supply.
Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is badly degraded, and bringing these reserves into substantial production will require enormous investment, repairs and years of development.
But strategically, the agreement could still be enormous.
Trump says the deal will more than double America’s oil reserves, increase supply and eventually lower gasoline prices.
Canada Suddenly Has a New Problem
Canada has long enjoyed an enormous advantage in the American energy market.
According to the Canada Energy Regulator, Canada supplied 63.4% of U.S. crude oil imports in 2025.
Canada exported approximately 4.3 million barrels of crude per day, with 90.1%—about 3.9 million barrels per day—going to the United States.
Those American-bound crude exports were worth approximately $126.1 billion.
That makes the United States Canada’s overwhelmingly dominant oil customer.
And now Washington is developing another major source of heavy crude much closer to home than Middle Eastern suppliers.
Venezuela Could Compete Directly With Alberta
This is where the new agreement becomes particularly significant for Canada.
Venezuelan crude is generally heavy and similar in important respects to the oil produced from Canada’s oil sands.
That matters because some U.S. Gulf Coast refineries were specifically built to process heavy crude.
Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier previously warned that competitively priced Venezuelan crude could displace some Western Canadian Select.
Before U.S. sanctions were imposed in 2019, Gulf Coast refineries processed as much as 800,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan heavy crude, according to U.S. government data.
The new Venezuelan arrangement could therefore create a direct competitive battle for American refinery demand.
Canada has enormous advantages—established pipelines, reliable production, geographic proximity and the Trans Mountain system providing access to Pacific markets.
But Washington now has another option.
And options create leverage.
Carney’s Trade War Gets More Complicated
The timing could hardly be more significant.
Trade negotiations between Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney collapsed last week.
Carney suspended negotiations, saying the latest U.S. terms were unfair and uneconomic. The United States subsequently imposed 50% tariffs on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods, while Canada announced plans for retaliatory measures.
Carney has argued that Canada must diversify its trade and become less economically dependent on the United States.
But the oil numbers demonstrate how difficult that transformation will be.
Canada can diversify.
Canada can build new pipelines.
Canada can pursue Asian and European customers.
But none of that changes the fact that the United States remains the dominant destination for Canadian crude.
And now Trump is attempting to build an alternative heavy-oil supply chain in Venezuela.
Trump Is Building an Energy Escape Route
The Venezuelan agreement fits into a much larger strategy.
Washington has been seeking greater control over Western Hemisphere energy supplies while global oil markets remain vulnerable to geopolitical disruption.
Venezuela possesses the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at roughly 303 billion barrels.
The problem has never been a lack of oil.
It has been the country’s ability to produce and export it efficiently.
Trump’s agreement attempts to change that equation by bringing American capital, management and strategic interests directly into Venezuela’s oil industry.
If successful, the result could be an enormous new source of crude for American refiners.
And that could reduce Washington’s dependence on any single foreign supplier—including Canada.
The Prophetic Watch
The Bible repeatedly connects the last days with geopolitical upheaval, economic uncertainty and nations competing for power and resources.
Jesus warned:
“And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars.” — Matthew 24:6
Today’s energy battles are not themselves proof that a specific prophecy has been fulfilled.
But they demonstrate something increasingly important about the modern world.
Oil is not merely fuel.
It is economic power.
It is transportation.
It is military capability.
It is industrial production.
It is national security.
And control over energy resources can dramatically alter the balance between nations.
Revelation 18 describes a future global economic system in which commercial power becomes deeply intertwined with political authority.
We should not force today’s headlines into that prophecy.
But we should recognize the direction of the world.
Energy, finance, military power and geopolitics are becoming increasingly interconnected.
News Watchmen Bottom Line
Trump’s Venezuela agreement does not mean America suddenly possesses 65 billion barrels of ready-to-pump oil.
It does mean Washington has positioned itself for potentially significant control over the development and output of an enormous Venezuelan reserve base.
That could eventually increase U.S. access to heavy crude, attract more than $100 billion in investment and give American refiners another major source of supply.
For Canada, the timing is painful.
Ottawa is fighting Washington over tariffs while the American administration is simultaneously creating another potential source of the very type of heavy crude that many U.S. refineries already consume.
Canada isn’t going to lose its American oil market overnight.
But the strategic equation has changed.
Carney is trying to reduce Canada’s dependence on America.
Trump is trying to reduce America’s dependence on Canada.
And Venezuela may have just handed Washington a gigantic new energy card.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How much Venezuelan oil is involved in Trump’s deal?
Trump says the agreement provides majority U.S. control over more than 65 billion barrels of proven reserves.
Does America now own Venezuela’s oil?
Not in the simple sense of purchasing the reserves outright. The arrangement involves a new venture and long-term development rights, with the United States receiving majority effective control of output according to current reporting.
Could Venezuelan oil hurt Canadian oil exports?
Potentially. Phillips 66 has said competitively priced Venezuelan heavy crude could displace some Western Canadian Select in U.S. refineries.
How dependent is Canada on the U.S. oil market?
In 2025, about 90.1% of Canada’s crude-oil exports went to the United States, worth approximately $126.1 billion.
Will the Venezuela deal immediately lower gasoline prices?
Probably not. Much of Venezuela’s infrastructure requires major rehabilitation, meaning substantial production increases could take years.
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